Climate-related events could push between 800,000 and 3 million Brazilians into extreme poverty by 2030. The data comes from the Country Climate and Development Report for Brazil (CCDR), released in early May by the World Bank. According to the study, which assesses policies and options for the country to meet its climate and development goals, droughts, floods, and urban flooding cause losses of R$ 13 billion (0.1% of the 2022 GDP) per year.
According to Stephane Hallegate, Climate Change Advisor at the World Bank and co-author of the report, the country faces severe inequalities, and the poor are already more exposed to the risks of disasters and climate change. However, this scenario can be reversed with targeted investment.
“Investing in people and infrastructure in less developed areas is crucial to making this low-income population more resilient. This will help them rise out of poverty and contribute to the country's economic growth,” says Hallegate.
The starting point of the CCDR is the objectives established by the country itself in the Paris Agreement and at the Conference of the Parties (COPs). To achieve these goals, the report recommends action on four fronts: structural reforms and productivity-boosting measures; comprehensive economic policies for resilient, low-carbon growth; sectoral policies and investment packages; and actions to secure financing for the necessary investments.
As a result, Brazil is expected to achieve green development and eliminate illegal deforestation by 2028, as well as reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50% by 2030, and reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
Poverty vs. Inclusive Growth
Although Brazil has drastically reduced the share of its population living in extreme poverty over the last three decades, the number of individuals in this condition rose in 2015 and 2016, reaching 5.8% of the population in 2021.
According to the report, the increase in extreme poverty could range from 0.4% to 1.3% by 2030, depending on the chosen development path. Climate-related reductions in agricultural yields, extreme weather events, food price fluctuations, health impacts, and heat-induced drops in labor productivity are among the factors that could drive this scenario.
The CCDR, however, suggests several measures for Brazil to meet its commitment to eliminate illegal deforestation by 2028 without hindering development. Among these is support for sustainable land- and forest-based economic activities.
According to the study's authors, expanding protected areas, including Indigenous territories, would improve forest governance, creating opportunities for payments for environmental stewardship, such as ecotourism, the sustainable harvesting of non-timber forest products, and agroforestry systems. The creation of Legal Forest Reserves (RFLs), as required by the Forest Code, would also offer opportunities for income generation and inclusive growth.
Competitiveness and Energy
Climate change is already altering temperature patterns and rainfall regimes in Brazil, resulting in lower water availability and prolonged droughts. According to the CCDR, these problems will worsen over time and could have severe consequences for agriculture, urban water supply, transport infrastructure, and hydropower generation, ultimately impacting economic competitiveness.
The study projects that the impact of a potential tipping point in the Amazon on Brazil's GDP could reach approximately R$ 920 billion by 2050. This tipping point refers to a collapse that would occur when the forest canopy is no longer sufficient to generate the moisture needed to sustain the rainforest.
Although Brazil is among the world's top ten greenhouse gas emitters, its emissions profile differs significantly from other countries. Between 2000 and 2020, 76% of the country's emissions originated from land-use change, including deforestation and agriculture, compared to just 18% globally. Conversely, nearly half of Brazil's energy supply, including over 80% of its electricity, comes from renewable sources, compared to global averages of approximately 15% and 27%, respectively.
The CCDR also highlights that the prevalence of renewable energy and Brazil's potential for producing green goods and services give the country a competitive advantage in supplying the products needed for decarbonization (the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere), including green minerals, green hydrogen, and manufactured green products. Prioritizing efforts to curb deforestation would allow Brazil to not only preserve its ecosystems but also gradually decarbonize other productive sectors.
“The sustainable use of natural resources is becoming a requirement for competitiveness in international markets. First, because green technologies are gaining ground, which impacts demand. For instance, electric vehicles are growing rapidly. Brazil has demonstrated the capacity to innovate and lead in new technologies, and it stands to benefit,” concludes Hallegate.
Via CicloVivo.
This article was written by CicloVivo. The translation is powered by AI.
